|
Abstract
|
In this article, we propose a novel mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19
involving environmental white noise. The new stochastic model was studied for the existence and
persistence of the disease, as well as the extinction of the disease. We noticed that the existence
and extinction of the disease are dependent on R0 (the reproduction number). Then, a numerical
scheme was developed for the computational analysis of the model; with the existing values of
the parameters in the literature, we obtained the related simulations, which gave us more realistic
numerical data for the future prediction. The mentioned stochastic model was analyzed for different
values of s1, s2 and b1, b2, and both the stochastic and the deterministic models were compared for
the future prediction of the spread of COVID-19.
|