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Keywords
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Fokker-Planck Equation, FPDE, Fractional
Brownian Motion, Ruin Probability, Actuarial Science
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Abstract
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This paper presents an advanced model for assessing risks
associated with potential catastrophic events faced by insurance companies. The model focuses on describing the behavior of claims related
to phenomena that can have severe and far-reaching consequences. The
mathematical foundation of this model is based on the Fokker-Planck
equation, specically its fractional form, which provides a robust framework for capturing the dynamics of risk processes. By modeling the
solution to these equations, we derive the density function of the risk
process, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of
catastrophic events. The study emphasizes perturbed risk processes,
by employing the xed point theory and utilizing fractional Brownian
motion to model both normal and anomalous diusion by varying the
Hurst index. A key component of this approach is the calculation of
the ruin probability, a critical risk measure in actuarial science, which
is evaluated for a variety of models with corresponding numerical implementations. This approach oers a novel perspective on actuarial
risk modeling, presenting a new methodology for coupling the severity
of claims with the frequency of occurrence. The nal fractional partial dierential equations open a gate to using numerical methods in
the eld for extreme risk measurement and modeling of catastrophic or
abnormal events.
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