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Abstract
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This study employs fuzzy set theory and the α-cut method to quantify
the uncertainty associated with the stability of the Pine Flat concrete
gravity dam in California, using Cadam software. Triangular fuzzy
numbers were assigned to key input parameters, including dam
geometry and loading conditions. Three α-cuts (0, 0.5, and 1),
representing 10%, 5%, and 0% uncertainty levels, were used to
analyze the impact of input variability on output parameters. Results
showed that crack length at the dam heel exhibited the highest
sensitivity, with tensile stress at the same location identified as a
critical output. A 10% input uncertainty led to a 270% increase in
tensile stress uncertainty, highlighting the effectiveness of fuzzy
analysis in capturing the nonlinear amplification of uncertainty. These
findings underscore the value of fuzzy approaches in dam safety
evaluations.
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